Will Pakistan wriggle out again?
US must link aid to Pak nukes, not just to action against jehadis.
In response to the previous post about the options available to the senior officers of Pakistan army to exhort their soldiers to fight the jehadis, this response came from an Indian defence analyst [via email].
I am in xxx attending xxx Forum — a jamboree of politicians, economists and analysts — all following their own agenda. An interesting aspect of Pakistan that I picked up here was that Pakistanis are in total denial and are happily lumping all their problems on to the Americans. Second and more importantly, Americans are willing to swallow anything to get the Pakistanis to fight and contain the Taliban. The attempts to break into Swat, and now Buner, are means to create an strategic depth against drone attacks which are apparently very effective.
Despite the serious situation obtaining in their country, there is a degree of cockiness within the Pakistani generals on their ability to handle the situation. I call it cockiness because in discussions, they are evasive and lack a clear tactical and operational perspective. On the other hand, as a policy of obfuscation they never tire from bringing the salience of Kashmir to the developments on the Af-Pak and Indian Army deployment on the border. If that is not enough, there is a tendency to highlight the stability-instability paradox.
Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid — a favourite of the West — yesterday asked for an aid package for Pakistan, with flexible benchmarks. That would mean more money to the Pakistan army, with little strings attached. In today’s Indian Express, Prof C Raja Mohan logically explains as to why that should not be an option for the US.
However, if reports of the tripartite meetings are any indicator to go by, the Obama administration believes that it can prevail over the Pakistan army — by either logical explaining, cajoling, bullying, pleading or simple buying them — to take on the jehadis. Those who consider the latest Pakistani military operations in Buner and Swat as a turning point in the resolve and approach of the Pakistan army simply overlook the precedents of Pak army and ISI timing their actions against jehadis or arrests whenever the US put Musharraf under pressure.
While Pakistan army might be up to its old tricks, the major difference in the US approach this time is its publicly expressed concern over the safety of Pakistani nukes. Aid to Pakistan and reciprocal action against jehadis has been played many times before but the nuke situation is the one which Pakistanis have never faced before. More than the US-aid-for-Pak-action, which will eventually come through — in one form or another — it is the negotiation over Pakistani nukes that will be of greatest significance from the meetings in Washington DC.
The US must use the leverage of the substantial aid package, not just for action against jehadis, but also to ask Pakistan to share their nuclear secrets with the Americans. It is a given that Pakistan will resist any such pressure to the fullest. The argument that the Americans can dish out is the one usually put forth by the Pakistani generals — of trust. If Pakistan can’t trust its foremost ally with its nuclear secrets, why should the US be willing to trust the Pakistanis with drones or other latest military technology or even greater military aid. Pakistan has been known to be a slippery customer and it is up to the legendary hard diplomatic skills of Holbrooke and charm of Obama to ensure that the past is not repeated once again. Hope… and some sugar.
“stability-instability paradox” is due to Pak trying pull off 2 conflicting masquerade games at one.
In order to milk the Americans for as much money/arms/aid as possible, Pak has to claim it’s teetering on the brink of disaster, and that only a massive infusion of the aforementioned items will save it.
On the other hand, Pakistan wishes to avoid precipating any direct US intervention on its soil, particularly against its nuclear weapons. So this game requires that it pretend to the US that everything is absolutely under control, and that there is nothing to worry about.
These are 2 objectives with conflicting requirements, hence the projection of 2 different images of Pakistan, and thus the “stability-instability paradox”.
Good thing that Obama can print money at will, because Pakistan is a black hole bigger than the sub-prime mess. And like sub-prime, this mess has been a long time in the making; it did not happen overnight.
I listen to the US National Public Radio. Since they didn’t mention the word ‘nukes’ in today morning’s program, it’s already out of the public mindset.
You can bet that things will get back to normal (aid-wise) to Pakistan.
America cannot be unaware of all this.
They have considerable HUMINT resources in pakistan. Diminished though it may be by recent events, the lure of american citizenship followed by the successful extraction and relocation of a few such resources along with family remains a great motivator.
Quote
“The attempts to break into Swat, and now Buner, are means to create an strategic depth against drone attacks which are apparently very effective.”
The ugly american can and will go after the bad guys even in swat and buner, sooner than later. The pakistan army is trying to finesse this by precipitating a ‘taliban” crises. The consequences of such drone strikes in the pakistani heartland will be horrendous for the pak army.
It will emasculate them for ever and the barely hibernating public resentment against the army will erupt.
While Pakistan army might be up to its old tricks, the major difference in the US approach this time is its publicly expressed concern over the safety of Pakistani nukes.
Agree. The old Pakistani trick of negotiating with a gun to its own head is running its course. With Clinton’s rant, and Mullen’s and Petraeus’ depositions and prognostications, it would seem that the Obama and Co are serious about the “no blank checks”. If they’re willing to let Chrysler (and possibly GM) sink, I would not expect the Pak establishment’s double-dealing to go too far.
PAKISTAN CAUGHT IN ITS OWN TRAP
Prof Dr Colonel K Prabhakar Rao (Retired)
Pakistan that has emerged as failed state has to blame itself for the present situation. Its pathetic existence for the last 60 years on the globe has seen prolonged military dictatorships, assassinations, hanging of own Prime Minister, chaos and confusion. The tragedy is that it has not learnt the lessons even today and toes the policy of hatred and deceit. Its founding is the result of hatred towards non believers and inability to co exist after loosing supremacy in the sub continent. Its formation is unnatural and has not done any thing all these years to unite the various warring provinces. Its inability to detach religion from politics has been the greatest drawback and the root cause of the trouble. Fundamentalism by the leaders and bearded Mullahs has taken the toll and they expect to take back the country to the times of Prophet ( PBUH) in the matter of dress, policies, mental get up, philosophy and governing. Taliban and fundamentalist Mullahs dream of Islamic warriors in white flowing robes and turbans riding horses with raised swords and ravaging the lands of kafirs with loot, murders, rapes, killings and conversions as done in the medieval times delivering death and devastation to the inhabitants of such lands. The aspect of Shariat and much misguided Jihadi philosophy has clouded their imagination and is unable to wriggle out of the mullah inspired policies that is surely going to land the nation in dire straits.
In fact, Pakistan has its own element of trouble. The provinces are clamoring for autonomy if not independence immediately. However independence by these provinces was in the backdrop all these years and at the call of Islam they are however holding precariously together. Baluchis, Pakhtoons, Sindhis and Punjabi Mussalmans have their own differences, inner hatreds and identification. They can not get on well and results are infront of the world. Waziristan their own North western province has been out of control and the government writ does not run there. The weird, lawless tribals live in utter poverty and breed with gun culture. Fundamentalist Islam flourishes in this area and it is completely out of control although for name sake it is in Pakistan. A nation that is born out of hatred can not survive for long and Pakistan is the living example. Their past time has been Kashmir till date and probably would continue till they exist pathetically as a country among failed states; infact leading them. They have stoked passions and hatred on the issue of superiority of Islam over others and generation after generation in Pakistan have grown with anti Indian euphoria and still continue to do so. Their Madrasas are innumerable and factories of hatred and jihad in the guise of religious schools.
All these years, Pakistan has been the pampered child of USA and in order to contain India and as a check mate in Sub continent USA has propped up Pakistan in the region. It has given billions of US dollars as aid, military hardware, Tanks, fighter air craft apart from turning a blind eye to their rush towards developing nuclear weapons. Pakistan attacked India four times on its own while USA watched. It has used Pakistan as a strategic partner in driving out Russians from Afghanistan. Pakistan has created Taliban in their Madrasas and waged war in Afghanistan without realizing that one day same Taliban would be hacking at their roots.9/11 and subsequent war on AlQaeda has made Pakistan more important to USA due to the strategic location of Pakistan. USA believed that Pakistan would eliminate Taliban and AlQaeda in its lands once they escaped Afghanistan. Alas! It did not happen. Pak leaders i.e General Musharraf has taken Americans for a wild goose chase since 2001 after swallowing billions of US money. In fact Al Qaeda and Taliban have grown strong and regrouped and are even threatening Afghanistan with a take over. Taliban have strong effect in some of the border districts of Afghanistan and Hamid Karzai the Afghan ruler is finding hard to ward off Taliban. Americans all these years have paid Pakistan large sums of money without taking care of accountability. Large sums have obviously spent in wrong direction towards Jihadi actions against India. The results speak for themselves.
USA has no interest to directly interfere in Pakistan, another sovereign country. It has been pressurizing Pakistan through various measures all these years without much success. The present President of USA Barack Obama has even spoken of American intervention in Pakistan during his election speeches. Now Obama has become a reality after departure of George W Bush. The drone attacks in Pakistan by NATO forces have no doubt become more pronounced resulting in killing of more civilians than terrorists. In the past Pak army lost many soldiers in their operations against Taliban and they signed a peace agreement. Taliban have become bold and have occupied Swat valley and have entered Buner and demonstrated their strong presence in the area that is hardly 60 KM from Pak Capital. The world countries were shocked watching the development while Taliban closed in. Taliban threat to Pak is thus clearly established. The point of contention is why Taliban was allowed to come so close to Rawalpindi? Why Army did not act having great capabilities? What prevented them?
Pakistan no doubt has a government that has no credibility. There are warring groups and the recent show down between Zardari the President and Nawaz Sheriff clearly indicate that Government has no control over the matters. Pak Army is counting days for the situation to become worst that would be great alibi for a coup. There is no doubt that a military coup as usual is round the corner and it is only a matter of time before Army strikes. Another aspect is the safety of nuclear weapons that are stock piled in Pakistan. Can a country that has no control on itself be able to protect the weapons from falling into Islamic fundamentalists such as Taliban and Al Qaeda? How safe they are? Can Pak army be trusted in present state with nuclear weapons. The questions that arise are:
1.Can Pak army fight off Taliban and save country from them?
2.Will a section of army side with Taliban and ditch the country?
3. Will Taliban be able to lay hands on some nukes and make it an Islamic bomb?
4. Is Pakistan edging towards balkanization and break up
5. Is army coup around the corner? Why General Kayani is still waiting?
6. With army take over will the Taliban be stopped?
7. Will USA interfere directly in Pakistan and save nukes
8.Will Pakistan realize that its main enemy is Taliban and not India?
9. If Pakistan breaks up who will have nukes?
10. Will the Pakistan areas remain eternally under turbulent conditions?
These are the most important questions facing the world to day. The situation is very complex at present as the Pak army is battling Taliban in Buner. Pak army will be fighting Taliban now on the ground of enemy’s choice and would find extremely difficult to eliminate them. Tanks can not be used effectively in mountainous regions and soon it has to be infantry operations aided by artillery strikes and probably with air strikes too. Pak army is complex in structure and is also influenced by Jihadi Islamic philosophy. We have to see whether such fundamentalists would fight the Taliban who are committed Islamic soldiers that they demonstrate in attire and show up and in commitment. The Islamic card would soon play and one would not be surprised if a section of soldiers refuse to fight them. Such actions happened in past immediately after Prophets Death. What will Pak government do in such scenario? Pakistan is no Turkey and neither Pak army is like Turkish Army that is preserving democracy in the country and kept religion out of the main stream. The past President Zia ul Haq systematically bred Jihadi philosophy in army. For Taliban, any one who does not subscribe to their Wahabi thought is a non believer and has to be put to sword. The day army aids Taliban one should reconcile to the arrival of dooms day in Pakistan. It is essential for USA to reconsider its policy on Pakistan. There is no point in pumping economic aid to Pakistan without accountability. They must account for every dollar. In the event of a catastrophe of Taliban taking over Pakistan it must act and take over nukes without delay and destroy all nuke capabilities in the country. How smoothly this has to be done is a big question. USA must take India into confidence for any precipitating action in Pakistan. There is however general wishful thinking that USA must aid Pakistan in fighting Taliban. Pak army is not determined in fighting Taliban in the country and probably they are waiting for them to arrive at Rawalpindi. Why army allowed them to come so close to national capital is a big question. This has boosted up the morale of Taliban that itself is a great victory for them. In nut shell Pakistan has become a big cess pool and as the days pass it is dragging itself into the depths of the pool only to disappear soon. God can not bless such nations that thrive on hatred towards others. Pakistan is surely one and at top of the list.
Dr K Prabhakar Rao